Green hydrogen production and use in low- and middle-income countries: Aleast-cost geospatial modelling approach applied to Kenya

This paper develops a novel least-cost geospatial modelling framework to identify optimal locations for green hydrogen production in low- and middle-income countries and applies it to Kenya as a detailed case study. The approach integrates renewable resource availability, infrastructure, transport, conversion, storage, and demand location to assess hydrogen costs across the full supply chain for different end uses.

Applying the model to Kenya, the study evaluates three potential use cases: ammonia production for fertilizer, hydrogen-based freight transport, and export to Europe. Results show that green hydrogen production costs of approximately €3.7–9.9 per kilogram are currently achievable, with the lowest-cost locations concentrated in northern Kenya, particularly south and southeast of Lake Turkana, where high wind resources reduce electricity costs. The analysis finds that domestically produced green ammonia could be cost-competitive under current global energy conditions, while hydrogen-based freight transport remains less economically attractive due to high vehicle and infrastructure costs. Export scenarios indicate that Kenya could supply green hydrogen to European markets at competitive prices, particularly as technology costs decline. The paper demonstrates the value of integrated, spatially explicit planning for hydrogen strategies and provides a transferable tool to support evidence-based decision-making in LMIC contexts.

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