Towards resilient and inclusive climate compatible development: a participatory, mixed-method scenarios approach for Zambia

This paper explores how climate-compatible development can be designed to be both resilient and inclusive, using Zambia as a detailed case study. It introduces a novel participatory, mixed-method scenarios approach that combines stakeholder-led qualitative scenario development with quantitative energy system modelling to support long-term strategic planning under uncertainty.

Working with Zambian policymakers, practitioners, and civil society actors, the study develops two contrasting scenarios. One is characterised by centralised governance, large-scale infrastructure, and export-led growth. The other emphasises decentralised governance, locally anchored livelihoods, and distributed investment strategies. By embedding energy system modelling within broader social, economic, and institutional narratives, the scenarios illuminate trade-offs across energy access, climate resilience, economic diversification, and equity.

The analysis shows that both pathways can support low-emissions development, but they differ significantly in their exposure to climate risks, vulnerability to external shocks, and capacity to deliver broad-based development. Beyond Zambia, the paper highlights the importance of testing infrastructure and economic strategies for resilience, aligning external partnerships with national priorities, and coordinating action across governance scales. The paper demonstrates the value of participatory, mixed-method scenarios as a transferable framework for countries facing similar climate, development, and institutional challenges, offering a practical tool to co-create climate-compatible futures grounded in local realities.

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